Sunderland vs Burnley Preview: Win Probability and Match Analysis

Sunday, 01 February 2026 | 23:00 (UK) | Stadium of Light

Premier League fixtures often come with expectations shaped by league position and recent form, but some games demand a closer look beneath the surface. This Sunderland vs Burnley preview does exactly that, focusing on context, numbers and tactical detail ahead of Sunday night’s meeting at the Stadium of Light.

While this may not be the headline fixture of Matchday 24, it is one that carries genuine weight for both sides. With Sunderland entering the contest as favourites, the pressure is firmly on the home team to turn probability into points.

Match Information

Fixture: Sunderland vs Burnley
Competition: Premier League
Matchday: 24
Date: Sunday, 01 February 2026
Kick-off: 23:00 (UK time)
Venue: Stadium of Light

Pre-Match Win Probability

Based on recent performances, home advantage and underlying metrics, the projected win probability ahead of kick-off stands as follows:

Sunderland: 55%
Draw: 26%
Burnley: 19%

These figures reflect Sunderland’s stronger home form and their ability to control matches in familiar surroundings, while Burnley’s lower probability highlights ongoing struggles away from home.

This Sunderland vs Burnley preview suggests a game where momentum and discipline may matter more than raw attacking volume.

Sunderland’s Home Advantage Explained

Sunderland’s higher win probability is closely tied to their performances at the Stadium of Light. At home, they tend to start matches with intensity, pressing early and moving the ball quickly through midfield areas.

Their approach is built around:

Aggressive early pressing to pin opponents back
Quick circulation to stretch defensive lines
Patience in possession rather than forced chances

This structure often allows Sunderland to dictate tempo, even when they do not dominate possession outright. The challenge, however, has been turning control into goals, especially against teams willing to defend deep.

Burnley’s Tactical Outlook

Burnley arrive knowing they are unlikely to control large spells of possession. Instead, their focus is expected to be on compact defending and making the most of transitional moments.

Key elements of Burnley’s game plan are likely to include:

A narrow defensive block to limit central space
Quick forward passes once possession is regained
Set-piece situations as a primary attacking outlet

Burnley’s numbers suggest that efficiency, rather than volume, will be crucial. Their ability to stay organised could frustrate Sunderland if the home side fails to score early.

What the Numbers Tell Us

Looking at recent statistical trends provides further insight into how this match could unfold:

Sunderland average higher possession at home but convert chances inconsistently
Burnley tend to face high shot counts away from home
Matches involving both sides often hinge on first goals

This Sunderland vs Burnley preview points towards a game where the opening goal could significantly shape the final outcome.

Key Tactical Battle

The most important contest may take place in midfield. Sunderland’s ability to recycle possession quickly will be tested against Burnley’s compact shape. If Sunderland can draw Burnley out of position, space will open up in wide areas. If not, patience will be required.

Burnley, meanwhile, will look to disrupt rhythm and slow the game whenever possible.

Final Thoughts

Overall, this Sunderland vs Burnley preview highlights a fixture defined by fine margins rather than clear superiority. Sunderland enter as favourites, but Burnley’s disciplined approach means there is little room for complacency.

If Sunderland can translate control into early goals, the match should follow the expected script. If not, Burnley have shown enough resilience to keep things uncomfortable deep into the contest.

Matches like this often hinge on small details rather than sustained dominance. Game management, set-piece efficiency and emotional control inside the stadium can all influence the final score. In that sense, Sunderland vs Burnley is a fixture where patience may be just as important as intensity, especially during the closing stages.